The continued downturn in the photovoltaic segment usher in a wave rally since late December last year, in mid-January of this year, the plate rebounded by nearly 38%.However, since the mid-since, with the policy of gradually into the vacuum, and the fundamentals are not under the pressure of real improvement, early profit taking began to settle, the re-emergence of plate callback full month, up 4.77%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index 0.36 percentage points. 

However, Northeast Securities (000,686) believes that February is still a complex period of fermentation of multiple factors affecting the photovoltaic industry, but rebounded trend due to the price of silicon materials, solar cell, components related living conditions and performance conditions are ushered in likely inflection point, plus the two sessions after the relevant supporting policies might have been put forward, photovoltaic plates still have periodic opportunities. 

From a fundamental point of view, most of notice issued performance photovoltaic company's 2012 earnings have suffered a sharp decline. Hong Yuan Securities (000,562), the market has been more fully the expected decline in the level of corporate profits, Annual pre-reduction will not have much impact on the company's stock price. 

Domestic polysilicon dual anti-and part of the downstream enterprises due to the recent initiative to cut the whole industrial chain products to a shortage of supply, coupled with the recent Japanese and domestic demand strong, prices are still rising. 

The data PVinsights and Solarzoom photovoltaic industry chain prices continued to rise in January, which component prices in late January, the first time since last year rose Guoxin Securities believes that, after the Spring Festival, the domestic demand will continue to open, photovoltaic plates thematic investment opportunities in the product price increases. 

Shi Lishan, and implementing policies, the National Energy Board, Deputy Director of the Renewable Energy Division recently revealed 35GW installed capacity to adjust to China's photovoltaic "12th Five-Year Plan. According to the January 1, "the State Council on the issuance of the notice of the" 12th Five-Year Plan of the Energy Development "," Twelve Five "solar charge controller  photovoltaic power generation capacity target for 21GW, which means the" 12th Five-Year photovoltaic power installed capacity thanpreviously planned to increase 66.7%. 

The industry believes that, although slightly lower than the previous market forecasts 40GW 35GW target, but this has PV installed capacity in China within five years, the fourth expansion shows the determination of the government to support the development of the photovoltaic industry. According to Solarbuzz the data, in 2012, China's PV installed capacity of approximately 4.5GW, an increase of 55.7% compared to 2011 of 2.89GW, in accordance with previous official statement 2013-2015 annual increase the 10GW target calculation, this year the growth rate of the industry scale will be more than 200%. 

Insiders also expected future supporting industrial policy involves credit support, technical standards, and network standards, as well as approval process reform will accelerate the introduction of related policies put in place in the case, the final domestic installed capacity of more than 35GW is a high probability event. In addition, with the introduction of distributed generation subsidy rules, the buy solar panels photovoltaic industry access conditions "," renewable portfolio management approach "file, the PV market is expected to further optimization. 

Overall, under the background of a recovery in demand in the contraction capacity, the the 2013 photovoltaic industry situation is generally better than in 2012. But look at the valuation point of view, and ended before the Spring Festival, photovoltaic plates still more than 40 times earnings, far higher than the CSI 300 11 times, is still at a high level. And after two years of market downturn, the majority of PV companies facing high risk of receivables, high inventory, high debt ratio, the first quarter is the peak of bonds settled. Therefore, recommend investors to focus on the selection of investment targets, Takamoto shares (601,012) relatively good financial position of the company, as well as special TBEA (600089), a lower valuation of the company.